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Vorlage:Importartikel/Wartung-2024-01

Vorlage:Short description Vorlage:Infobox hurricane season The 2023–24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season is the current event of the annual cycle of tropical cyclone and subtropical cyclone formation. It begun on 15 November 2023, and will end on 30 April 2024, with the exception for Mauritius and the Seychelles, for which it will end on 15 May 2024. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical and subtropical cyclones form in the basin, which is west of 90°E and south of the Equator. However, tropical cyclones can form year-round, and all tropical cyclones that will form between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 will be part of the season. Tropical and subtropical cyclones in this basin are monitored by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Réunion and unofficially by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Seasonal forecasts

Source/Record		Moderate Tropical Storm	Very/Intense Tropical Cyclone
Record high:		15	9
Record low:		3	0
Systems
Mauritius Meteorological Services	6–8 tropical cyclones
Météo-France	5–8 tropical cyclones
Forecast Center	Chance of above average
Météo-France	10%	20%	70%
Source: Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones.

In October 2023, Météo-France issued its seasonal forecast of cyclone activity for the basin. The MFR predicted a season that was below-average, citing the effects of a strong El Niño event. The MFR placed chances of a below-average season at 70%. Average cyclone activity was given a 20% chance, and an above-average level of activity was given a 10% chance. The season in the South-West Indian Ocean was expected to be below-average, with 5–8 systems of moderate tropical storm intensity or higher.

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) released their summer 2023–24 outlooks. Around six to eight cyclones was expected to form. The MMS indicated that the region west of Diego Garcia would hold conditions more conducive for cyclogenesis. Vorlage:Clear

Seasonal summary

The season officially started on 15 November 2023, however the first system, Alvaro, would not form until 30 December. Alvaro became a tropical depression the next day, traversing the Mozambique Channel, before making landfall in Morombe District, Madagascar on 1 January 2024.

Systems

Severe Tropical Storm Alvaro

Vorlage:Infobox tropical cyclone small In December 2023, the MFR began to monitor the potential for tropical cyclogenesis as Kelvin waves and Rossby waves intersect in the western portion of the agency's area of responsibility, ahead of a wet phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation; a low was forecast to develop into a moderate tropical storm south of the Mozambique Channel in these conditions. By 29 December, a monsoon trough had produced convection southeast of Beira, Mozambique that spun, as convergence of winds increases within the system's closed surface circulation. The next day, the MFR classified the system as a tropical disturbance, and in addition, the JTWC began monitoring the disturbance. Tracking southeast under the influence of a ridge, the disturbance was further upgraded to a tropical depression by the MFR on December 31. The warm core consolidated, causing the system to intensify into a moderate tropical storm and receive the name Alvaro. Moreover, the JTWC designated the storm as Tropical Cyclone 04S.

During 1 January 2024, Alvaro's maintenance of a curved band and the emergence of an eye prompted the MFR to upgrade the system to a severe tropical storm, as Alvaro continued to strengthen under favorable conditions despite vertical wind shear in the mid-level troposphere. The storm grew a central dense overcast around its ragged, inchoate eye while Vorlage:Convert east-northeast of Europa Island, continuing east-southeast. Around 12:00 UTC, both the MFR and JTWC stated that Alvaro had peaked with sustained winds of Vorlage:Convert; the MFR also measured the system's lowest barometric pressure at Vorlage:Convert. As the storm approached Madagascar, the cloud top pattern slowly degraded as it warmed up, with the eye gradually disappearing due to persistent wind shear. At 19:20 EAT (16:20 UTC) that day, Alvaro made landfall in Morombe District, Madagascar, bringing sustained winds of Vorlage:Convert and gusts of Vorlage:Convert. Alvaro rapidly weakened due to the mountainous terrain of the island nation, with rainbands around the core no longer present. By 12:00 UTC of 2 January, Alvaro weakened into an overland depression and exhibited the circulation to satellite imagery, only retaining convection over the east quadrant. Alvaro re-entered the Indian Ocean on 3 January, re-intensifying back into a moderate tropical storm. Shortly thereafter, Alvaro would succumb to strong wind shear as mid-level dry air invaded the storm, despite substantial outflow boosted by a subtropical jet. By 18:00 UTC, the MFR classified Alvaro as a post-tropical depression after the storm had lost its tropical characteristics. The MFR issued its final bulletin on Alvaro on 4 January, as the system interacted with the baroclinic zone.

Anticipating Alvaro's landfall, the meteorological service of Madagascar (Meteo Madagascar) raised a yellow alert for the districts of Morondava, Manja, Morombe, and Toliara on 31 December, which would be upgraded to a red alert a day later as Alvaro made landfall. Mariners across Maintirano and Toliara were advised to stay out of sea. The mayor of Morombe reported property damage. Several parts of the city were flooded, and many residents evacuated from their homes, using schools and outlying villages as accommodation sites. Areas of southern Madagascar reported uprooted trees, torn roofs, and damaged infrastructure, necessitating international assistance. As of 5 January, nearly 26,000 people in Madagascar were affected by Alvaro, with over 9,400 displaced and relocated to 36 evacuation centers. The regions of Haute Matsiatra, Atsimo-Andrefana, Menabe, Ihorombe, and Fitovinany suffered the brunt of the storm. About 241 settlements were totally destroyed, and 426 homes were damaged in addition to 15 schools. Ten people were killed by the storm. In response to the disaster, the World Food Program allocated rice, oil, mosquito nets, and other equipment to the affected areas. Vorlage:Clear

Storm names

Within the South-West Indian Ocean, tropical and subtropical cyclones that are judged to have 10-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center on Réunion island, France (RSMC La Réunion) are usually assigned a name. However, it is the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centers in Mauritius and Madagascar who name the systems. The Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center (Mauritius Meteorological Services) in Mauritius names a storm if it intensifies into a moderate tropical storm between 55°E and 90°E. If instead a cyclone intensifies into a moderate tropical storm between 30°E and 55°E then the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center (Meteo Madagascar) in Madagascar assigns the appropriate name to the storm. Storm names are taken from three pre-determined lists of names, which rotate on a triennial basis, with any names that have been used automatically removed. New names this season are Alvaro, Belal, Candice, Djoungou, Eleanor, Filipo, Gamane, Hidaya, Ialy, and Jeremy which replaced Alicia, Bongoyo, Chalane, Danilo, Eloise, Faraji, Guambe, Habana, Iman, and Jobo which were used in the 2020–21 season.Vorlage:RA I Tropical cyclone operational plan

Alvaro Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused

Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused

Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused Vorlage:Tcname unused

Season effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2023–2024 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC La Réunion. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2023 or 2024 USD. Vorlage:Pacific areas affected (Top) |- | Vorlage:Sort || Vorlage:Sort || bgcolor=#Vorlage:Storm colour|Vorlage:Sort || bgcolor=#Vorlage:Storm colour|Vorlage:Convert || bgcolor=#Vorlage:Storm colour|Vorlage:Convert || Mozambique, Madagascar || Vorlage:Sort || Vorlage:Sort || Vorlage:TC Areas affected (Bottom)

See also

• Weather of 2023 and 2024
• List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
• Tropical cyclones in 2023 and 2024
• Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2023, 2024
• Pacific hurricane seasons: 2023, 2024
• Pacific typhoon seasons: 2023, 2024
• North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2023, 2024
• 2023–24 Australian region cyclone season
• 2023–24 South Pacific cyclone season

External links

• Météo-France La Réunion Vorlage:In lang
  • Alternative website
• Direction Générale de la Météorologie de Madagascar Vorlage:In lang
• Mauritius Meteorological Services
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

{{DEFAULTSORT:2023-24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season}} [[Category:2023–24 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season|*]] [[Category:South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons|2023-24]]